And now for the Weather

Four seasons in one day is a cliché popular in Ireland to describe the soul destroying weather and amongst Kiwi band Crowded House, to talk about the City they really come from. Which is of course Melbourne. Ireland has no real claim to this phrase, as it never snows in the morning only to be replaced by sunshine in the afternoon. In Ireland, the phrase really means, if it’s raining now, it probably won’t be in half and hour. It is much more accurate to say, “If you don’t like the weather, hang around for 20 minutes”. Although to be honest, you won’t like the weather much then either.

Crowded House wrote that song about Melbourne and after 3 months of living here, I can see why. Melbourne gets the kind of weather changes that make you wonder if it’s actually God’s chemistry set and he’s up there conducting weather system experiments that he might later try out on some rednecks in America and the Russian steppe. Thursday was the coldest day since I got here. An Antarctic wind was howling up Collins Street as though it was trying to deliver the body of Scott from it’s snowy grave. On Friday, the temperature rose by 10 degrees and the coats were put away again for the summer. On Saturday, the cold temperatures returned, only for the sun to re-appear on Sunday. In Ireland, there are only really two weather systems, Showery with sunny spells or Sunny spells with showers. In Melbourne, it is boiling hot or freezing cold, quite often within the same day. It is not unusual (among us new arrivals for example) to leave the house in the morning in a short sleeved shirt and sunnies, only to come back in the evening in a state of frozen shock as the walk from the tram is like trampling through a Siberian forest.

The forecast for this week is 27c today, 17c tomorrow and 27c again the next day. How is a fragile Irish metabolism supposed to cope with that? In the mornings, I find it hard enough to remember whether shoes go on before trousers or not, so I really struggle with planning what to wear for the day. It's usually inappropriate and I end up sweating or shivering. I'm sure people who see me regularly on the tram, think that I'm one of St.Kilda's many drug addicts. Which would make me feel at home on the tram, but that's another story.

One thing that is predicable in Australia (as with the rest of the Western World) is politics. Francis Fukayama wrote a famous book called "The End of History" and while I've never had the enthusiasm to read right wing triumphalism and don't have the energy to do so anyway, I have to depressingly admit that he has a point. Liberal Democracy has won the battle for hearts and minds in the west and nobody has the stomach for real change. Since communism collapsed in the 90's, western democracy has settled into a cosy collaboration with commerce and globalisation has ensured that the west at least, is protected from recession, because it will constantly find new markets in the developing world. It's as though the Americans finally found the secret to colonisation, 100 years after the European powers have given up on it. We no longer have recessions in the west, we just have economic ups and downs that are balanced by large scale labour movements too and from the east. So there is very little to get upset about and as people are fundamentally selfish, the status quo suits them just fine. So if a centrist party happened to be in power in the west 10 years ago, then chances are they still are. That's how Tony Blair hung on for so long in Britain and Bertie manages to stay in charge in Ireland. Australia has had John Howard (him of the bushy eyebrows) as premier for the past 10 years. And while it's difficult to find a person with a good word to say about him, he stands a good chance of being re-elected on November 24th. He called the election yesterday and as I'm a political anorak, this will give me the pleasure of observing two general elections in the same year. The Irish one in May was pretty disappointing (apart from being six feet away from Michael McDowell as he gave his retirement speech to the chorus of "Cheerio, Cheerio, Cheerio"). I had better hopes for the Australian version, as the Labour Party stand a genuine chance of winning. In all my life and travels, I've never lived under a Labour Government, so the prospects were quite exciting. Until I discovered that the Australian Labour Party is about as left wing as Mussolini.

In a desperate attempt to grab the middle ground, the Labour Party are now saying that they are most economically conservative party in the country. Well whippy doo. So much for taking control of the means of production and giving it back to the workers.

I had an excellent dinner in Melbourne on Saturday night and as you do, we got to talking about politics. One of the party was among the few to openly admit support for John Howard. He said that Communism had failed everywhere it was tried and therefore Capitalism was the only solution left. It won by default. Capitalism of course has failed more than half the world. But they live in China, Burma, the Middle East, Africa and South America. Capitalism in those places means working in a sweat shop or providing fodder to the War for Oil. We live in the west where everything is just rosey. No need to upset the applecart. And so, I confidently predict that John Howard will be returned to power on November 24th. Now if only the weather was so easy to predict.