I recently received an email from
my Accountancy body expressing their concern about the Brexit process. That’s
understandable. Anybody with an IQ above minus infinity knows that Brexit is
the biggest political mistake since the Confederacy tried to leave the Union in
1860. That is a little unfair perhaps. I’m sure there are many people in the
wastelands of Northern England who wanted nothing better than to give the
establishment the middle finger. The sad truth is that they are cutting their
nose off in the process.
My Accountancy body wanted to
warn me that I may not be able to obtain an Auditing Certificate in the United
Kingdom after 2020. I was devastated to hear this news. I qualified in Ireland
in 1987 and have never found the need to obtain a British Auditing Certificate.
But it was comforting to keep it in the locker if I ever wanted to semi retire
to Sunderland and spend two days a week preparing accounts for people on
zero-hour contracts within the gig economy.
The other thing this email made
me realise is that Brexit’s tentacles can still find me, even down here in New
Zealand. I also have a bank account in the UK and I’m watching the value of
this drift away like snow in spring.
That being said, I have to admit
that I’m a Brexit obsessive. I’ve always been interested in the mechanics and
theatre of politics. I’ve attended election counts, poured over results in
obscure constituencies and to take a recent example, spent far too much time
reading about the congressional campaign in the 9th district of
Texas. Brexit ticks all the boxes for political nerds. Brain numbing
complexity, outright lies being bellowed with gay abandon and the slow car crash
of a country destroying itself on live TV.
I read everything I can on the
subject in the Guardian and the Irish Times (while safe within my liberal echo chamber)
and listen to Brexitcast and the regular reports on New Zealand radio where the
presenters take turns to laugh at their former Mother country. Part of my
fascination is that this is a process that will barely impact me but will
affect all my friends and family in Ireland and the UK. So, I thought it was
time that I wrote down my thoughts on the subject.
Brexit at its heart is about
immigration and that gnawing feeling that somebody on the outside is
responsible for all your ills. At a simple level, the free market
fundamentalists in British politics (both Labour and Tory) introduced the free
movement of eastern European labour to drive down wages and working standards.
When the locals got angsty, the British political system conscripted their old
private school buddies in the media to blame some shadowy cartel in Brussels
for everything that was going wrong. It’s a lie on the level of Hitler
convincing the German people that Jewish peasants in Poland were responsible
for the humiliation of Treaty of Versailles.
The British establishment thought
they were getting away with it. An endless supply of cheap labour producing
goods and service that they could then sell into the European market at massive
profits while simultaneously blaming the Europeans for the social ills this
caused. The mistake they made was to pretend that they were democrats who cared
about the feelings of the general public. They called a referendum they never
thought they would lose and which was designed to be a safety valve to allow
the lumpen proletariat to blow off some steam. They miscalculated and the rest
is history. History that unfortunately the Irish and British people now have to
live through.
Every country has concerns about
immigration. Ireland, for example went from zero immigration to 10% of the
country being foreign born within twenty years. Not everyone welcomed this. A
former justice minister took away the right to citizenship of kids born in
Ireland to foreign parents. A decision that made zero difference to immigration
but will lead to many elite athletes and footballers declaring their
allegiance to Nigeria rather than the country they were born in.
In the early days of immigration
to Ireland My Mother used to say “I don’t mind the blacks but I don’t like
those Bulgarians.” There wasn’t many Bulgarians in Ireland at the time but they
were lots of Romanian gypsies. Which just goes to prove, that is you are going
to be racist, you should at least be specific. Britain had the same issue. The Brexit
campaign brought up immigration and the protection of borders constantly. For
those who didn’t like immigrants, this brought to mind Islamic terrorists and Pakistani
taxi firms involved in child abuse. The irony is that this immigration came
from former British colonies and not from the EU. But the seed was sown.
I fear now that no deal is the
most likely outcome and that Britain will crash out of the European Union on
March 29th next year. The reason I say this is that all other possibilities,
including Teresa May’s deal and an extension of Article 50 require a majority
vote or consensus among the other 27 countries in the EU. “No Deal” just has to
plod along and hope everyone else keeps arguing with each other. This is
becoming more likely every day.
There is an assumption that
nobody wants a “No Deal” scenario but this isn’t true. The nutcases within the
European Research group and their backers within the Russian troll industry would
like nothing better than the chaos that will come with crashing out. Jacob Rees Moss and
his cronies would love to build a new Jerusalem from the embers of modern
Britain and the Russians would be happy too.
I hope I’m wrong. I have too many
British and Irish friends to take any pleasure from the misery that a no deal
will result in. But nobody wanted World War One to happen either. It just did
but because nobody shouted stop.